Today, college football fans got their first installment of BCS rankings. Below are the rankings with subsequent analysis of BCS contenders likelihood going forward for a title berth.
Let’s start at the Top.
Texas is no doubt the number one team in the country at this point. The good news is that they will not likely face a tougher task then Oklahoma the rest of this year. However there are still 4 games in which they may be susceptible to an upset.
The next two weeks close out the Big 12 Gauntlet portion of their schedule with games against top ten teams Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Both teams are prolific on offense and will likely put up a big number on the Longhorns. However its very likely both games will yield similar results as the past two shootouts against Missouri and Oklahoma. I envision a 14+ point win against Oklahoma State and a closer game against Tech.
The Longhorns would also have tough late season challenges going on the road to face a very experienced Kansas team as well as a Big 12 championship game which would likely be a rematch game against either Kansas or Missouri.
The good news is that Texas would likely be at the head of the 1 loss line if anything were to happen to them in those 4 games. However if somehow they failed to make their conference championship game (Oklahoma State or Texas Tech could keep them out with an upset win), then the Longhorns will have to break through the stigma of playing for a national title without being a the conference champion.
Alabama who has been less impressive and consistent as Texas also has their work cut out for them. A road trip to Knoxville might be tougher than imagined this upcoming weekend. The biggest date left on the calendar is a road trip to face a pretty gritty LSU team in Death Valley. A home finale showdown vs Auburn also looms and while a victory is likely, a rivalry game of this nature thrives off opportunities to play spoiler.
The biggest showdown would be the SEC Championship game which will likely be against the winner of the World’s Biggest Cocktail Party (Florida vs Georgia). Beating Tebow will be a tough challenge as would be beating Georgia twice in one year in the state of Georgia! In my opinion their is only room for one SEC team in a title game and it can’t be Alabama unless they win the conference. With that in mind Georgia and Florida are playing a elimination game in Jacksonville.
The team with the least bumpy road to the title game would be Penn State. With the prestige of the Big 10 down and a poor out of conference showings across the board, this upcoming game against the Buckeyes is most likely for the conference championship as well as a potential shot to earn a berth in the title game.
After the Buckeyes its pretty tame with games against Michigan State and Iowa being mild hurdles in the way. IMO, we’ll know if Penn State is in the national title game in a week. Keep in mind that if USC wins out, Penn State has the advantage of destroying Oregon State while the Trojans logged a loss.
Oklahoma is in a holding pattern at number 4. Right now there has only been 1 showdown between the Big 12 South’s quartet of offensive juggernauts. The Sooners need a scenario where there is a complicated tie with Texas, Oklahoma State, and Texas Tech or two out of those three teams. Essentially Oklahoma needs either Tech, Okie State to beat Texas, and then needs to beat both of those opponents.
This scenario may allow them to get the Big 12 championship game against Kansas or Missouri. Its also not impossible to believe that if the Sooners and the Longhorns both win out, that the country gets a in conference rematch against Texas for an epic title game. The Sooners would need to look really good against Tech and Okie State and would need Penn State and Bama to falter which is very possible.
USC is just chilling at number 5 with a very very manageable schedule ahead of them. No title conference game and no games against ranked teams on the docket at this point in time. However as we have come to learn, the Trojans are not immune to random losses in conference games. I give the Trojans a 66% chance on winning out and a 30% chance of playing in the title game. The win against the Buckeyes gives them a nice head to head win if the Buckeyes are able to climb the ranks after a Penn State win. However looking at the schedule and the BCS rankings, it will be very hard for USC to leap frog Oklahoma, so the Trojans definitely need some help and should be rooting for the Buckeyes on Saturday.
Oklahoma State and Texas Tech are 6th and 8th and have a shot to make some noise. However both teams imo will fall out of the running as they both have to take on Texas and Oklahoma in the coming weeks as well as play each other. Tech’s schedule is below and if they are in the BCS top 10 in a month from now, kudos to them.
Both teams will not get the Texas/Oklahoma love if they don’t win the conference so both their futures lie in forging some big time upsets and beating each other.
Georgia, Florida, and LSU all lurk at 7th, 10th, and 13th. Georgia actually plays LSU and FLorida the next 2 weeks.
LSU has to deal with Georgia and Alabama and will likely fade away. Florida has the Bulldogs and then a pretty calm schedule until Florida State.
The bottom line in the SEC is that Georgia or Florida will play Alabama or LSU in the SEC Championship game. I doubt LSU can hang all season long so you are looking at a 3 way race between Bama, Georgia, and Florida. As long as the winner of that title game has 0 or 1 loss, I think you will see them in the championship game.
My Buckeyes at number nine need to take care of business against Penn State and then can start dreaming. Road games to Northwestern and Illinois would remain on the calender as well as a probable beat down of Michigan, but most likely a Buckeye win would put them in the BCS top 5 by the time the played their next game against Northwestern.
The biggest keys for the Bucks would obviously be a Penn State win, and losses to Oklahoma and USC. With the in conference carnage about to take place in the SEC in the Big 12, its very possible the Buckeyes could sneak into the title game again but Oklahoma and USC are the 2 prominent teams in line in front of them that may end up winning out.
There are some other teams lurking, but imo these are your contenders.
All that being said here is some handicapping of who will be in the title game
Big 12-
Texas: 38%, Oklahoma: 23%, Oklahoma State: 2%, Texas Tech: 3%
SEC-
Alabama: 25%, Florida: 15%, Georgia: 10%, LSU:1%
Pac 10-
USC: 30%
Big Ten-
Penn State: 32%, Ohio State: 20%
Others-
1% (Utah, Boise State)
